🌏 Kumamoto Quake Report 12: 801 Tremors, Risk Down to 1/10

❓ What was announced

On September 24, 2026 at 2:00 p.m., the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) released Report 12 on the "2026 Kumamoto Earthquake." The main shock struck on July 28 at 4:27 p.m. at a depth of 16 km in the Kumamoto region of Kumamoto Prefecture, with a provisional magnitude of 7.1. Seismic intensity 7 — the top of Japan's scale — was recorded in Uki City and Hikawa Town, with intensities from 6+ down to 1 felt from the Chubu region through Kyushu. The mechanism was a strike-slip fault within the crust with a tension axis running NNW–SSE, and long-period ground motion class 4 was observed in Kumamoto. By 9:00 a.m. on September 24, 801 tremors of intensity 1 or above had occurred (five at intensity 5-, 24 at 4, 74 at 3, 190 at 2 and 508 at 1). The key change in Report 12 is the outlook. Over the past two weeks only 38 tremors occurred, including one at intensity 4, and the likelihood of another quake of around intensity 5- or higher has dropped below the level equivalent to once a month. For the three days from midnight on September 24, that probability is roughly one-tenth of what it was immediately after the main shock — but still about 10 times the normal background level, and above-normal activity is expected to continue for some time. The Futagawa and Hinagu fault zones lie near the epicenter, and the government's Earthquake Research Committee assesses that the main part of the source fault extends into part of the Takano–Shirahata segment and the northeastern Hinagu segment of the Hinagu fault zone.

👥 Who is affected?

• ●Foreign residents living anywhere in Kumamoto Prefecture (northern, central, Yatsushiro, Aso, Ashikita, Amakusa and Kuma areas)
• ●Technical intern trainees, Specified Skilled Workers and other visa holders employed in Kumamoto
• ●Tourists and business travelers planning trips to Kumamoto or elsewhere in Kyushu
• ●People staying on upper floors of high-rise apartments or hotels, where long-period ground motion is felt more strongly
• ●All foreign residents in Japan who want to be ready for a major quake anywhere in the country

🌏 Impact on foreign residents and visitors

It would be a mistake to relax just because the probability has dropped to one-tenth. The JMA states in the same report that activity is still about 10 times the normal background level and that above-normal seismicity will continue for some time. If you live in Kumamoto, keep securing furniture, maintaining emergency supplies and confirming your evacuation site on the assumption that shaking will continue. Travelers should check evacuation routes and emergency exits with hotel staff, and allow slack in their schedule: trains and buses may stop for safety inspections even after a moderate tremor. Japanese earthquake reports always separate "magnitude" (the size of the quake) from "shindo" (how strongly a specific place shook) — the same M7.1 event registered anywhere from shindo 7 to shindo 1 depending on location, so get into the habit of checking the shindo for your own city or town. If you live near or are visiting the coast, check the tsunami hazard map for evacuation sites and routes in advance. The JMA emphasizes that a large earthquake could strike anywhere in Japan at any time, and urges everyday preparedness.